No Peace, No Deal

The pieces are shifting, and Trump has walked himself into a strategic trap of his own making.

By humiliating Zelensky and blocking U.S. aid, Trump has already positioned himself as hostile to Ukraine. But now, he needs Zelensky to legitimize his so-called “deal”—because without that signature, Trump has no victory to claim.

And the best part? Zelensky doesn’t have to do anything to make Trump squirm.

How This Could Backfire on Trump

1. Zelensky’s Silence = No ‘Peace’ Deal = No Victory for Trump or Putin

• Trump desperately needs a public win—something that only Zelensky can provide by signing an agreement.

• If Zelensky delays or outright refuses, Trump is left claiming a “deal” that doesn’t exist.

• Meanwhile, Putin gets nothing either. A stalled “peace deal” means continued resistance and no easy territorial grab.

2. Trump’s Own NATO Attacks Have Strengthened Europe

• His repeated threats to abandon NATO have forced Europe to wake up and increase its own defense production.

• Ukraine has received more direct aid and weapons manufacturing commitments from Germany, France, and Poland in the past few months than in the entire first year of the war.

• Trump cannot use NATO as leverage anymore—Europe is now acting independently.

3. Trump Has Already Cut U.S. Aid – He Has No More Bargaining Chips

• By halting U.S. aid, Trump has already given away his leverage.

• Europe is stepping in to fill the gap—so Ukraine may no longer need U.S. assistance at the same level.

• This leaves Trump with nothing to offer Ukraine in exchange for a deal.

4. Zelensky Can Play the Clock

• If Zelensky simply “doesn’t have time” to negotiate, Trump remains stuck in limbo.

• Trump will grow increasingly desperate for a win, putting him in a weaker position.

• If Trump pressures Zelensky too publicly, it looks like he’s acting on behalf of Putin—further damaging his standing.

Possible Outcomes

Zelensky stalls indefinitely → Trump is left standing alone, unable to claim victory.

Europe solidifies its independence from the U.S. → Weakens Trump’s ability to dictate global policy.

Ukraine continues fighting without U.S. support → Exposes Trump’s strategic miscalculation.

So while the tables aren’t fully turned yet, the board is shifting. If Zelensky chooses to ignore Trump and let him sweat, this whole “deal” could collapse into another humiliating blunder.

Trump thought he was forcing Zelensky into a corner. Instead, he may have just backed himself into one.